Катеруша Г. П.

Purpose. The aim of this research is detection of trends of changes (according to fact and scenario data) of extreme air temperature as a component of thermal regime in different regions of Ukraine because of global climate change. Methods. System analysis, statistical methods. Results. Time distribution of maximum air temperature regime characteristics based on results of obser-vations on the stations located in different regions of Ukraine during certain available periods: Uzhgorod (1946-2018), Kharkiv (1936-2005), Оdessа (1894-2005), аnd also according to scenarios of low (RCP2.6), medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) levels of greenhouse gases emissions. Meanwhile, air temperature ≥ 25°С was con-sidered high (days with maximum temperature within 25,0-29,9°С are hot), ≥ 30°С was considered very high (days with such temperature are abnormaly hot). Trends of changes of extreme air temperatures were identified as a component of thermal regime in different regions of Ukraine within global climate changes. Dynamics of maximum air temperature and its characteristics in ХХ and beginning of ХХІ centuries were researched. Ex-pected time changes of maximum air temperature and number of days with high temperature during 2021-2050 were analyzed by RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. There were identified the highest day air temperatures possible once in a century and also possibility of maximum day temperature more than 30°С by RCP4.5 scenario. Well-timed prediction of climate changes will help evaluate their impact on human and natural systems which will be useful for development and taking preventive measures towards minimization of negative influence of such changes. Conclusions. Processes of climate warming in Ukraine are activating. There was determined a strong trend on increasing of average maximum of air temperature in winter with speed 0.17-0,39 degrees centigrade/10 years. According to climatic norm this index mainly increased mostly (up to 3,3 degrees centigrade) in January in North-East of the country. In future such anomalies will grow. Determination of correlation between climate and health is the base for taking protective measures against perils for population health connected with climate.

Purpose. Assessment of bioclimatic conditions of cold season on the basis of weather severeness indices and analysis of their dynamics on the territory of Ukraine. Methods. Estimation of possible values of some cold stress indices and their changes in different regions of the country is based on two scenarios А1В and А2. Results. Possible consequences of climate change on human health in Ukraine are considered. On the base of Bodman index and wind chill factor of Siple-Passel, there are given forecast parameters of uncomfortable climate within three periods: 1986-2005, 2011-2030 and 2031-2050 years. According to both scenarios, mean values of Bodman index during the given periods on the major part of Ukraine reach to 2-3 points and this means that during certain winter months and whole winter moderate severe conditions will prevail, though in western and southern areas will dominate slightly severe ones. According to both scenarios, during December-January within first and second periods in some areas of the country even high risk of hypothermia is possible, as well as frostbite of open parts of the skin in 5-10 minutes can occur. The most severe conditions are expected in January-February in Sumy (A1B) and Lugansk (A2), the least severe – in Kropyvnytsky (A1B) and Ternopil (A2). The trend of hypothermia and frostbite conditions change during the winter season in different regions of the country has been analyzed. Conclusions. The trend of decrease of Bodman index prevails on the whole territory of the country during all winter months. Weather conditions in February are the harshest in first and third periods and weather conditions in January-February are the most severe in the second period (А1В), according to another scenario for the whole researched time the harshest conditions are observed in January. In all analyzed time periods, in December winter weather conditions were the most comfortable according to both scenarios. But mostly repeatability of wind chill factor of Siple-Passel prevailed in the interval of 0 ÷ -9 ºC, thus a slight risk of frostbite, some discomfort will be observed. So, in winter expected compounds of low air temperature and wind in certain days in future might cause frostbite of different levels, they will influence on spreading of infections epidemics and «cold» diseases.