прогноз

A comparison of climate change in the temperate zone of the northern hemisphere based on the 140-year period of observations at three weather stations (Oxford (UK), St. Petersburg (Russia) and New York (USA)) and predicted by simulation of the Calculations meteovelichin various mathematical methods, including smoothing with moving averag-es (exponential and weighted) used correlation analysis and standard statistical analysis. Proposed to use fractal modeling for the study of nonlinear meteorological processes with indeterminate essence of their characteristics.

Changes repetition of thunderstorms in summer months above a city Kiev can be described with high exactness by the method of linear multiple regression. The identified models possess robastnost to the temporal changes in the future on 22 years and that is why can be used for prognostication of further dynamics of this process to 1930 year.

Found a significant statistical relationship changes in the level surface of the Black Sea in the section on the history of Evpatoria variations in solar activity, ahead of the process at 180-200 years. Taking them into account a forecast of changes mean annual sea level rise in this item up to 2140, which shows that the process is cyclical in nature and is present in the spectrum of component with a period close to 100 years.